Lessons from the 18th Lok Sabha elections of 2024
Lessons from the 18th Lok Sabha elections of 2024
Sugato Hazra
The largest exercise of democracy
in the history of the world said the US State Department spokesperson in his
official reaction after the six week long election process was completed. Prime
Minister Modi came back to power for the third consecutive term, though with a
reduced majority and supported by coalition partners. While opposition,
particularly the major opposition party Congress, improved its tally
substantially are not happy. Its leader Rahul Gandhi, who used all tricks
available in electioneering, not everything strictly fair, keeps complaining
that India’s EVMs are unsafe and must be scrapped. Hidden in such bitter
repetitive whining lies the frustration of not managing to dethrone their arch
enemy who has been painted with all shades of black including by foreign and
“independent liberal” media and continuation of what The Economist calls
“the Modi Raj”.
The question, and hope for the
opposition, is will Modi last full five years and rule with his standard
sangfroid? Let that be as it unravels, the issues which the election for the 18th
Lok Sabha in India threw up have come here to stay long.
Electorate has the last word!
First and foremost is the issue
of reaching out to electorates with the message of their leader – explain the
message for everyone to digest and win their support. The task was more
difficult for the ruling BJP since anti-incumbency could not be winked at. At
the same time there was complacency as well, supporters feeling confident of
the third term for Modi not taking the extra pain to come out and cast vote.
For opposition it needed little effort to bring the disgruntled to the polling
booths.
Election narratives do not favour the incumbents
Second and no less critical is to
argue against the points raised by the opponents, come back quickly with
rebuttal and convince the gullible. Here again the ruling party is always at a
disadvantage. Anybody who benefitted from good governance still nurtures some
grievance or other and readily accepts criticisms, factual or manufactured.
This is what saw Modi’s BJP losing its stronghold in Uttar Pradesh.
Have ears to the ground
Third point that cadre-based
parties like BJP cannot get over is that their own cadre and leaders have the
best cognizance of what’s going on. This feeling becomes a major flaw
especially when successful central leaders throw their caution to the wind and
behave arrogantly. This was the major drawback for BJP in Uttar Pradesh. In
contrast opposition, including Congress, having shortages of cadre trusted
hired professionals as also technology in rattling the incumbent – in 2024
successfully.
The Road Ahead
Clearly elections, in a complex
country like India, are knotty enough to be managed by a handful of leaders
sitting in the capital and having ears to their favourites’ voices from the
grassroots. The task is tougher for incumbents and needs meticulous support of
professionals. A professional working on issues in a geography will not be
influenced unduly by the local euphoria, will have his ears to the ground and
in order to maintain credibility, essential for future business, will provide
critical inputs which often be ignored by party operatives. The election 2024
has seen relative success of opposition due to use of support from non-party
cadre who had their reasons to oppose the ruling BJP. Here Prime Minister
Modi’s supporting team failed intoxicated as they were with the idea of
invincibility of their leader.
Sugato Hazra is the
Founder-Director of PoliMinds Consult, a Political PR and Content Solutions
company. He has authored the book Influencing India: Lobbying in the World's
Largest Democracy (Bridging Borders, 2011) and Losing the Plot:
Political Isolation of West Bengal (Niyogi Books, 2021) and co-authored Winning
the Mandate: The Indian Experience (Sage, 2020). He can be reached at
sugatoATpolimindsconsultDOTcom
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