Ear to the Ground by PoliMinds Consult

Insights into Evolving Political Developments 

The Lok Sabha election 2024 saw voting on communal lines with the large section of minority/Muslim voters shunning the ruling BJP in most places. In West Bengal, according to the state’s leader of opposition Suvendu Adhikary, 95 per cent of Muslim votes went in for the state’s ruling Trinamool Congress (TMC) despite allegations of widespread corruption by the TMC. What is more, what hurt Suvendu most, had been large scale efforts to prevent majority Hindus from casting votes, both in the Lok Sabha election as also in the by-polls immediately thereafter. Clearly the communal polarisation was a major factor behind revival of a section of opposition in states like West Bengal as also Uttar Pradesh.

While by encouraging communal divide certain opposition parties like Congress, TMC and SP have gained in 2024, the important question is will they manage to carry on the same trick in future? Perhaps what they did not think that there would be equal and opposite reaction of polarising by BJP leadership also. For instance Suvendu Adhikary openly in a BJP meeting declared that since such communalism is ruling politics in West Bengal, his party also should rethink how to protect the Hindus in the state. Himanta Biswa Sharma, the Assam chief minister, in an interview to a national TV channel mentioned the disturbing feature of increase in Muslim population in his state. The Yogi Government of Uttar Pradesh meanwhile has directed all food vendors selling on the route of the popular Kanwar Yatra to display names of owners and employees. The innocuous directive, logically needed for consumer protection, found many critics since this was viewed as anti-Muslim. The devotees were expected to avoid Muslim vendors for their food. Many Muslim food chains said to spit on foods before serving. Clearly there are covert and overt move within BJP leaders to polarise

Hindu votes.

Given such an expected backlash by BJP leaders, though officially the ruling party maintained its Sabka Sath Sabka Vikas slogan, the opposition must rethink its strategy or else the sharp communal division will work against non-BJP parties. Their appeasement policy has emboldened Hindutva lobby to voice their views openly, a fact that will hurt the minority appeasement politics.

The question that an aspiring politician needs to address is should she join either of these camps or there are still options of maintaining a middle ground! The middle ground exists provided the more vociferous lobby, mostly left liberals aided by foreign lobbies, tone down their attack on Hindus. But that is unlikely. In that case the nationalist Hindu lobby will find more takers. Prima facie politics in India is destined to turn sharply communal with Hindus coming out openly in support of their religious faith. This will harm the minority interest, mostly economic interest. As also the national interest.

If the intelligentsia in the minority community realise the futility and tone down their religious

fervour the discord can be contained. But the problem is there is hardly any ‘intelligentsia’ among the vocal minorities. Only the religious fanatics and preachers control the community. Such people have never been seen supporting what is civilised discourse. Does it mean an aspiring politician must necessarily join the hard core elements for political position? 

The issue is the most critical in political PR in India today. Can one create a political career just by preaching aspirations of common men carefully avoiding the communal cauldron? That is the most important issue for an aspiring political leader wanting to make a mark for herself on the political landscape in India. They need to create a course carefully researched and planned in attracting people of all religions especially targeting the hard core elements so as to neutralise their influence in democratic process.

Difficult proposition but much needed.